A dystopian COVID future: imagine what it could be like
The Dystopia: In September 2021, just imagine that the Victorian State Government in Australia relented to ever increasing protests against COVID vaccine mandates, mask use and lockdowns. Imagine that the public health orders were rescinded. Calm was restored. Below is an imaginary story of what that future could look like with a real-world data driven example at the end.
The first two weeks were wonderful after the rescinding of the public health orders. Spring had arrived and the long-lost freedom was appreciated by everyone. There was a sparkle in the air.
The moment however was short lived. It was not the explosion in cases so much but rather the ever-increasing reporting on COVID deaths that happened after October. Then the inability of the hospital system to cope after November. In December even serious COVID cases were still at home. Maybe hospitals should have coped but the COVID exposure to healthcare staff, the unrelenting work hours brought the system to its knees. Even those ill with other things suffered.
Many resisters to vaccination were now scared and rushed to get vaccinated. The sad truths of deaths and pain around them were bigger incentives than the original public messaging. But as they say, timing is everything and it takes time to vaccinate and time for the vaccines to work. So, a COVID explosion was not averted. By December, a somber reality set in. The busiest sectors were not retail and hospitality but funerals. It was not a happy Christmas.
Step forward to Melbourne September 2023. Melbourne Victoria is a very different place in 2023. COVID is no longer an issue. Yes, there is an annual vaccination, but the economy has re-established itself. But there is a deep feeling of sorrow. The last two years were the biggest infectious disease death rates ever experienced. But more prominent is the lingering after-effects of COVID still experienced by so many more.
The impact of COVID was not uniform. Those vaccinated and who practiced appropriate social protections have their lives back to a stable existence and opportunity beckons. Many still work from home from choice.
Some communities have been much more affected than others. There is not a protest movement now. Actions speak louder than words and the COVID wave spoke with a vengeance.
There is a lot of silence and regret. A new Royal Commission has started. The main item is whether the Government broke its charter to care for the community when it lifted the public health orders. There are very few witnesses to support the Governments actions.
It is easy to look back but harder to predict. However, a glimpse of that future is below in a real-world example:
Epilogue 1: real time Mississippi, USA 2021
The effects of no mask mandates, open economy and limited and voluntary vaccination is seen in real-time in the State of Mississippi, USA. Both Victoria and Mississippi have had a delta COVID wave commencing July 2021. Below is the real story of the two states. Mississippi fully vaccinated rate on September 19, 2021, was 42.1% of total population. For Victoria it was 37.9% of total population at the same date. Sources: Guardian and Our World in Data. That seems to be the only similarity in responses. The following news snippets give some context of the two states:
“Mississippi lifts all COVID-19 restrictions except masks in schools.” Fox13 Memphis April 30, 2021
“When asked if he felt he could have done more in recent weeks to encourage vaccination or help to slow the spread of COVID-19 in Mississippi, Reeves said the idea is a "figment of the imagination of the press." Clarion Ledger 13 August 2021
“Mississippi governor won’t issue state-wide mask mandate as COVID-19 cases surge.” WJTV 13 August 2021
“Hospitals in crisis in least vaccinated state: Mississippi.” APnews 9 September 2021
“The Mississippi Department of Health released new guidelines encouraging people to avoid large gatherings, wear masks and get vaccinated against COVID-19”. USA Today 11 September, 2021
“A surge of coronavirus in the summer and early fall coupled with low vaccine uptake has pushed Mississippi past New Jersey as the state with the highest death rate in the pandemic—with fatalities still rising.” Forbes Magazine 16 September 2021
“Mississippi governor claims vaccine mandate is ‘attack on hardworking Americans.” Guardian 19 September 2021
“Gov. Tate Reeves of Mississippi on Sunday downplayed his state’s high Covid death rate, calling it an inadequate benchmark to measure the pandemic’s toll in the state.” New York Times 19 September 2021
Epilogue 2: real time Victoria, Australia 2021
Victoria entered a 5-day lockdown between 16 July 2021 and 20 July 2021. The lockdown was extended to 27 July 2021. Restrictions were eased 28 July 2021
Just 9 days after the restrictions were eased, Victoria went into its sixth lockdown August 5. It is still in place September 21 with slightly altered restrictions.
“Vaccine mandate set for major events, hospitality as government plans return of crowds in November.” The Age 17 September 2021
“A day after announcing Victoria’s roadmap out of lockdown, Premier Andrews was forced to spend much of his time defending it. “We have a game plan now,” he said earlier on Monday. So, people can find fault with the national plan, they can find fault with the roadmap, and all of that. “They’re blessed with not having to deliver all of these balancing acts.” 7news.com.au 20 September 2021.
Epilogue 3: A look at the data in 2021 for the delta COVID wave
Both Victoria and Mississippi have had a delta COVID wave commencing July 2021. In the case of Mississippi, this was fast and has already peaked but with a high ongoing rate of cases and deaths. For Victoria, the lockdown which re-commenced 5 August seems to have delayed and massively reduced the peak. There is a stark contrast between the states as seen in the two graphs. The data reinforces the success of suppression and lockdowns in Victoria in limiting cases and deaths.
“Baseline” is July 1 before the COVID wave started. Victoria had no cases or deaths at this time. *Peak shown in graphs of Mississippi is August 20, 2021. Probably, the Victorian peak is not yet reached. So, the latest available at time of data collection is shown as the Victorian peak (September 19, 2021). The Mississippi data is taken from the New York Times and the Victoria data from JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data .
Postscript:
The September 19 2021 Mississippi death rate in a Victorian context would be equivalent to seven hundred deaths/week and that would be very sad. The Victorian measured plan is to increase freedoms when vaccination is higher than now. The task of a high vaccination rate is not an easy one, though. I hope it does not need more real-world deaths to make it happen.
Acknowledgement for opening Image by ilonatheresiafrey@gmx.de
